spot ETFs remains the swing factor for hedging d — perpetual futures is testing conviction

Cycles rhyme, but the plumbing underneath keeps changing.

Even when feeds obsess over “CFTC Reportedly Warns Kalshi of Charges Over Prediction Market Launches,” the durable question remains process versus prediction.

Most blow-ups start as comfortable consensus.

Ignoring spot ETFs because sanctions screening looks exciting is how late-cycle mistakes compound.

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